Long-term mortality burden trends attributed to black carbon and PM2·5 from wildfire emissions across the continental USA from 2000 to 2020: a deep learning modelling study

Wei, J., J. Wang, Z. Li, S. Kondragunt, S. Anenberg, Y. Wang, H. Zhang, D.J. Diner, J. Hand, A. Lyapustin, R. Kahn, P.R. Colarco, A. da Silv, and C. Ichoku (2024), Long-term mortality burden trends attributed to black carbon and PM2·5 from wildfire emissions across the continental USA from 2000 to 2020: a deep learning modelling study.
Abstract

 

Our results showed that PM2·5 and black carbon estimates are reliable, with sample-based cross-validated coefficients of determination of 0·82 and 0·80, respectively, for daily estimates (0·97 and 0·95 for monthly estimates). Both PM2·5 and black carbon in the USA showed significantly decreasing trends overall during 2000 to 2020 (22% decrease for PM2·5 and 11% decrease for black carbon), leading to a reduction of around 4200 premature deaths per year (95% CI 2960–5050). However, since 2010, the decreasing trends of fine particles and premature deaths have reversed to increase in the western USA (55% increase in PM2·5, 86% increase in black carbon, and increase of 670 premature deaths [460–810]), while remaining mostly unchanged in the eastern USA. The western USA showed large interannual fluctuations that were attributable to the increasing incidence of wildfires. Furthermore, the black carbon-to-PM2·5 mass ratio increased annually by 2·4% across the USA, mainly due to increasing wildfire emissions in the western USA and more rapid reductions of other components in the eastern USA, suggesting a potential increase in the relative toxicity of PM2·5. 100% of populated areas in the USA have experienced at least one day of PM2·5 pollution exceeding the daily air quality guideline level of 15 μg/m³ during 2000–2020, with 99% experiencing at least 7 days and 85% experiencing at least 30 days. The recent widespread wildfires have greatly increased the daily exposure risks in the western USA, and have also impacted the midwestern USA due to the long-range transport of smoke.

Research Program
Applied Sciences Program (ASP)
Modeling Analysis and Prediction Program (MAP)
Atmospheric Composition
Atmospheric Composition Modeling and Analysis Program (ACMAP)
Tropospheric Composition Program (TCP)