Modeling Energy Consumption and CO2 Emissions at the Urban Scale: Methodological Challenges and Insights from the United States

Parshall, L., K. Gurney, S. hammer, D. Mendoza, Y. Zhou, and S. Geethakumar (2010), Modeling Energy Consumption and CO2 Emissions at the Urban Scale: Methodological Challenges and Insights from the United States, Energy Policy, 38 (9), 4765-4782, doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2009.07.006.
Abstract

Local policy makers could benefit from a national, high-resolution inventory of energy consumption and related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions based on the Vulcan data product, which plots emissions on a 100 km2 grid. We evaluate the ability of Vulcan to measure energy consumption in urban areas, a scale of analysis required to support goals established as part of local energy, climate or sustainability initiatives. We highlight the methodological challenges of this type of analytical exercise and review alternative approaches. We find that between 37% and 86% of direct fuel consumption in buildings and industry and between 37% and 77% of on-road gasoline and diesel consumption occurs in urban areas, depending on how these areas are defined. We suggest that a county-based definition of urban is preferable to other common definitions since counties are the smallest political unit for which energy data are collected. Urban counties, account for 37% of direct energy consumption, or 50% if mixed urban counties are included. A county-based definition can also improve estimates of per-capita consumption.

While federal and state governments dictate much of US energy policy, increasingly municipal authorities are engaging on energy issues, often within the context of local climate or sustainability initiatives. Because of their density of demand, cities can take advantage of a wide array of technology and policy options to increase energy efficiency and reduce per-capita consumption of fossil fuels. But local planners also face several challenges, including inadequate data, decentralized energy planning, and the difficulty of formulating local policy to address national and international problems.

In this paper we suggest that local policy makers could benefit from a national, high-resolution inventory of energy consumption and related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. A national inventory, completed at regular intervals, would allow local authorities to establish baseline energy consumption and monitor changes over time, compare themselves to other similar localities, set appropriate energy- and emissions-reduction targets, and support local participation in carbon markets. Such an inventory also could provide the type of consistent data needed to analyze how different aspects of the urban environment interact with socio-

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Research Program
Interdisciplinary Science Program (IDS)