Sunday September 28 weather briefing for ARISE, Fairbanks Alaska mission region

** target area of the day: satellite underpass tracks in the area of 72-76N and 125-150W  **

Current synoptic overview and short range forecast for the next flight day, Monday Sept. 29:
A dip in the jet stream following an upper level trough is bringing north and
northwesterly winds to the western part of the state and southerly flow
ahead of the trough in eastern Alaska.  The well stacked upper level low
shows up as a 522 DAM low at 500 hPa centered over Barrow and moves eastward.
The surface cylcone and associated trough and frontal system is located
north of Barrow in the Beaufort Sea. Distinct bands of precipitation associated with
this frontal system and trailing trough can be seen in the forecast maps as
several areas of widespread precipitation.  Most of the state is free of
high clouds as the high clouds associated with the front have wrapped
around the low and stretch across the Beaufort Sea and down through
western Canada.  It may be challenging to find flight paths free
of rain, freezing rain, and snow at this time.

Outlook for succeeding flight day, Tuesday Sept. 30:
The 300 hPa jet stream trough pattern continues to move eastward bringing
northwesterly winds to most of the interior.  Winds in most of
western Canada are forecasted southerly  as the jet follows the eastern edge
of the upper level trough.  As the low over the southern Beaufort Sea
flattens and stretches eastward, a new 536 DAM low has formed at the base of
the trough near Ketchikan.  Tropopause heights in the 5-6 km range are
forecasted near the Alaska Canada border near the Beaufort Sea and in
the vicinity of Juneau. High clouds are absent in the target area
until the frontal band of clouds half way between the Alaska Canada
border and Banks Island.  At the surface, unsettled troughs and the
remains of frontal precipitation stretch across the state covering
areas from Kotzebue to Fairbanks and near Barrow and along the north
shore of the state.  Forecasted widespread areas of precipitation
and the lack of expansive cloud free zones may prove challenging
for flight planning purposes.

-- 
Austin Conaty, SSAI        Global Modeling and Assimilation Office

Sunday September 28 weather briefing for ARISE.pdf