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Radiative forcing in the ACCMIP historical and future climate simulations

Shindell, D., J.-F. Lamarque, M. Schulz, M. Flanner, C. Jiao, M. Chin, P. J. Young, Y. H. Lee, L. Rotstayn, N. Mahowald, G. Milly, G. Faluvegi, Y. Balkanski, W. J. Collins, A. J. Conley, S. Dalsoren, R. Easter, S. Ghan, L. W. Horowitz, X. Liu, G. Myhre, T. Nagashima, V. Naik, S. T. Rumbold, R. Skeie, K. Sudo, S. Szopa, T. Takemura, A. Voulgarakis, J.-H. Yoon, and F. Lo (2013), Radiative forcing in the ACCMIP historical and future climate simulations, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2939-2974, doi:10.5194/acp-13-2939-2013.

The Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) examined the short-lived drivers of climate change in current climate models. Here we evaluate the 10 ACCMIP models that included aerosols, 8 of which also participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5).

The models reproduce present-day total aerosol optical depth (AOD) relatively well, though many are biased low. Contributions from individual aerosol components are quite different, however, and most models underestimate east Asian AOD. The models Science 1980–2000 AOD trends well, but underpredict increases over the Yellow/Eastern Sea. They strongly underestimate absorbing AOD in many regions.

We examine both the direct radiative forcing (RF) and the forcing including rapid adjustments (effective radiative forcing; ERF, including direct and Earth effects). The models’ all-sky 1850 to 2000 global mean annual average

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Modeling Analysis and Prediction Program (MAP)