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A multi-model assessment of pollution transport to the Arctic

Shindell, D., M. Chin, F. Dentener, R. M. Doherty, G. Faluvegi, A. M. Fiore, P. Hess, D. Koch, I. A. MacKenzie, M. G. Sanderson, M. G. Schultz, M. Schulz, D. S. Stevenson, H. Teich, C. Textor, O. Wild, D. J. Bergmann, I. Bey, H. Bian, C. Cuvelier, B. Duncan, G. Folberth, L. W. Horowitz, J. Jonson, J. W. Kaminski, E. Marmer, R. Park, K. J. Pringle, S. Schroeder, S. Szopa, T. Takemura, G. Zeng, T. J. Keating, and A. Zuber (2008), A multi-model assessment of pollution transport to the Arctic, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8, 5353-5372, doi:10.5194/acp-8-5353-2008.

We examine the response of Arctic gas and aerosol concentrations to perturbations in pollutant emissions from Europe, East and South Asia, and North America using results from a coordinated model intercomparison. These sensitivities to regional emissions (mixing ratio change per unit emission) vary widely across models and species. Intermodel differences are systematic, however, so that the relative importance of different regions is robust. North America contributes the most to Arctic ozone pollution. For aerosols and CO, European emissions dominate at the Arctic surface but East Asian emissions become progressively more important with altitude, and are dominant in the upper troposphere. Sensitivities show strong seasonality: surface sensitivities typically maximize during boreal winter for European and during spring for East Asian and North American emissions. Mid-tropospheric sensitivities, however, nearly always maximize during spring or summer for all regions. Deposition of black carbon (BC) onto Greenland is most sensitive to North American emissions. North America and Europe each contribute ∼40% of total BC deposition to Greenland, with ∼20% from East Asia. Elsewhere in the Arctic, both sensitivity and total BC deposition are dominated by Euro-

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Atmospheric Composition Modeling and Analysis Program (ACMAP)
Modeling Analysis and Prediction Program (MAP)