[All] FW: [arc-code-s-supervisors] Forecast discussion released last night

[Vasques, Marilyn F. (ARC-SGG)]

Good morning,
I thought you might find this interesting.
M


From: arc-code-s-supervisors <arc-code-s-supervisors-bounces at lists.nasa.gov> on behalf of "Spackman, Ryan (ARC-SG)" <ryan.spackman at nasa.gov>
Date: Sunday, August 23, 2020 at 1:23 PM
To: "arc-code-s-supervisors at lists.nasa.gov" <arc-code-s-supervisors at lists.nasa.gov>
Subject: [arc-code-s-supervisors] Forecast discussion released last night


  Area Forecast Discussion<https://www.weather.gov/glossary/index.php?word=AREA+FORECAST+DISCUSSION>

  National Weather Service<https://www.weather.gov/glossary/index.php?word=NATIONAL+WEATHER+SERVICE> San Francisco Bay Area

  635 PM PDT Sat<https://www.weather.gov/glossary/index.php?word=SAT> Aug 22 202

Many people are asking what some of the key differences between

  the last lightning<https://www.weather.gov/glossary/index.php?word=LIGHTNING> event and this one, so will hit on those very

  briefly:



  A) overall, this is more of a tropical moisture<https://www.weather.gov/glossary/index.php?word=MOISTURE> feed rather than a

  combination tropical-monsoonal moisture<https://www.weather.gov/glossary/index.php?word=MOISTURE> feed. This is important

  because last time we had two moisture<https://www.weather.gov/glossary/index.php?word=MOISTURE> layers at different levels

  (700-550MB and 550-400MB last time) merging into a massive

  reservoir of moisture<https://www.weather.gov/glossary/index.php?word=MOISTURE> for elevated convection<https://www.weather.gov/glossary/index.php?word=ELEVATED+CONVECTION> to tap into, but

  this time the layer is less extensive in depth vertically and

  discontinuous horizontally, potentially reducing the number of

  thunderstorms and weakening any that develop, though the deepest

  moisture<https://www.weather.gov/glossary/index.php?word=MOISTURE> with this storm<https://www.weather.gov/glossary/index.php?word=STORM> does align with the best enhancement

  Sunday night through Monday morning.



  B) the differences in the adjacent trough, which was previously

  discussed. Less favorable enhancement is expected versus last

  time, which may potentially weaken any thunderstorms, though the

  best enhancement does align with the Sunday night through Monday

  morning deep moisture<https://www.weather.gov/glossary/index.php?word=MOISTURE>.



  C) A nose of high pressure of over the region today and into

  tomorrow may dilute some of the initial moisture<https://www.weather.gov/glossary/index.php?word=MOISTURE> surge but retreat

  and not limit moisture<https://www.weather.gov/glossary/index.php?word=MOISTURE> for the main concern Sunday night through

  Monday morning.



  D) Former Hurricane<https://www.weather.gov/glossary/index.php?word=HURRICANE> Genevieve ingested a massive amount of smoke<https://www.weather.gov/glossary/index.php?word=SMOKE>

  from the coastal fires, but it is unknown how this may change the

  course of the upcoming event.



  E) We have multiple large wildfires on the ground so the impacts

  are different and more fire behavior focused.



  Overall, these factors generally point towards a less extreme

  event than last weekend however we are more sensitive to any

  strong winds due to the wildfires on the ground.

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