SUCCESS 48 hour Meteorological Forecast
12z 03 May 1996
Forecast Based on
- on satellite
- current surface observations
- 00 UTC ETA
- 00 UTC NGM
- 09 UTC MAPS/RUC
- MRF
- 12z ECWMF
Synopsis
Zonal flow across the entire US. There is still the cut off low out in the Pacific at
150W. There are no apparent ripples in the flow. There are scattered vorticity lobes
of varying intensity through the flow.
A lot of excitement here this morning. Intense convection sprung up in western KS this morning around 10z. Within a half hour, the top of the cell measured 207 K. As the morning progressed, more cells popped up toward the east ahead of this main cell. The convection was heading due east toward Salina. The radar was showing tops of 50,000 ft, hail, and a meso cyclone for one of the cells. The line of convection was just south of Salina and Russel. With strong surface convergence in the lower levels and a strong southerly jet, severe convection broke out along a warm front just south of Salina.
A surface low is centered over the panhandle of TX/OK and sw KS. The winds are southeasterly and increasing. Overhead, anvil cirrus covers most of the sky, and it is dark to the southwest.
The water vapor loop shows a moist tongue extending from the southwest over OK and the CART site. There is a dry slot to the west of this moist tongue; therefore, drying conditions in the upper troposphere are expected as the day progresses.
Prog Discussion
The models are showing a stationary pattern to the upper level flow and surface fronts.
The ETA and NGM differ a little in the placement of the surface low over TX/OK/KS through
today and tomorrow; but, no matter the placement, a stationary front will be positioned
over KS.
Tomorrow a shortwave is analyzed over KS and northern OK. This shortwave may allow cirrus to advect in or to form over the CART site.
48 hour Forecast:
12z 03 May - 00Z 04 May: Partly cloudy. Chance for thunderstorms, possibly severe.
Highs in the lower 80s. Winds out of the southeast at 10 kts.
00Z 04 May - 12Z 04 May: Partly cloudy. Chance for showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the 50s. Winds northeasterly at 5-15 kts.
12z 04 May - 12Z 05 May: A chance for thunderstorms mainly during the early morning and late afternoon hours. Partly cloudy. High lower/mid 70s. Northeast winds at 10-20 kts. Chance for thunderstorms in the evening. Lows in the mid 50s.
Extended Range Discussion:
12z 05 May - 12Z 06 May: Partly cloudy. Remote possibility of thunderstorms. High
around 75.
The MRF and ECMWF are both trying to pick up that cut off low in the Pacific and bring it into the westerly flow. If this verifies, a trough will set up along the west coast, leaving KS on the front side of it. OK/KS could see some good cirrus and persistent contrails.
This type of pattern could also lead to severe weather in KS depending on where the surface low, associated fronts, and upper level jet are located.
Walker and Mace