Forecast based on

• on satellite
• current surface observations
• 00 UTC ETA
• 00 UTC NGM
• 09 UTC MAPS/RUC
• MRF
• 12z ECWMF

Synopsis

The nose of the jet is entering the TX/OK panhandle. Over KS and OK the upper
level winds are 70 kts and should increase to 100 kts by 00 Fri 19. A shortwave
is centered over KS/OK and will track to the northeast as the day progresses.
The winds have shifted from southerly to northerly in lieu of the early morning
frontal passage.

Prog Discussion

All the models agree reasonably well with the placement and strength of the upper
level jet. At mid-levels, the ETA and AVN form a shortwave ridge over KS/OK after
the shortwave moves to the northeast. The NGM does not resolve this shortwave
ridge whose axis is centered over WY/NE border. At the surface, a low will form
in western KS in response to a strong upstream shortwave.

48 hour Forecast:

12z 18 - 00Z 19 Apr: A shortwave is over KS/OK and the jet nose is entering the
TX/OK panhandle. The shortwave will move to the northeast and a shortwave ridge
will form over WY/NE. The day should be sunny and warm. Highs upper 70s. The
wind will be northwesterly in the morning changing to westerly by the afternoon,
20 kt or greater with gusts to 30 kts.

00Z 19 Apr - 12Z 19 Apr: A low will form in western KS. The upper level jet will
be directly over KS/OK with a jet max of 110. Clear skies with temperatures in
the upper 40s can be expected. The winds will decrease and shift becoming more
southerly.

12z 19 Apr - 12Z 20 Apr: The surface low will move to N. MO/IL. Highs in the upper
70's and mostly sunny. Some low level moisture is associated with the next shortwave
from the west. Mid-level clouds may be contained to the far north/northwest of KS.
Westerly winds at 10-15kts.

Extended Range Discussion:

12z 21 Apr - 12Z 22 Apr: Dry and cooler most areas. Highs upper 60s,low 70s.
The ECMWF has the zonal upper level wind pattern changing by 12Z Sat. 20 with
a ridge building in the west.

Walker and Mace