Interseismic coupling and refined earthquake potential on the Hayward-Calaveras fault zone

Interseismic strain accumulation and fault creep is usually estimated from GPS and alignment arrays data, which provide precise but spatially sparse measurements. Here we use interferometric synthetic aperture radar to resolve the interseismic deformation associated with the Hayward and Calaveras Faults (HF and CF) in the East San Francisco Bay Area. The large 1992–2011 SAR data set permits evaluation of short- and long-wavelength deformation larger than 2 mm/yr without alignment of the velocity field to a GPS-based model. Our time series approach in which the interferogram selection is based on the spatial coherence enables deformation mapping in vegetated areas and leads to refined estimates of along-fault surface creep rates. Creep rates vary from 0 ± 2 mm/yr on the northern CF to 14 ± 2 mm/yr on the central CF south of the HF surface junction. We estimate the long-term slip rates by inverting the long-wavelength deformation and the distribution of shallow slip due to creep by inverting the remaining velocity field. This distribution of slip reveals the locations of locked and slowly creeping patches with potential for a M6.8 ± 0.3 on the HF near San Leandro, a M6.6 ± 0.2 on the northern CF near Dublin, a M6.5 ± 0.1 on the HF south of Fremont, and a M6.2 ± 0.2 on the central CF near Morgan Hill. With cascading multisegment ruptures the HF rupturing from Berkeley to the CF junction could produce a M6.9 ± 0.1, the northern CF a M6.6 ± 0.1, the central CF a M6.9 ± 0.2 from the junction to Gilroy, and a joint rupture of the HF and central CF could produce a M7.1 ± 0.1.